Anwarul Haq
In Uttar Pradesh (UP), Muslims have been huge force for secular parties which are ruling in the country’s most populous state for last two decades. But scenario seems to be different this time. Unlike Bihar where Nitish Kumar led coalition was an ultimate choice, Muslims in UP is going to face very tough situation electorally in early next year assembly elections.
The
question is after all why this scenario of confusion for Muslims in UP is being
created? There are some strong reasons for this situation. First and the most
important reason is that main “secular parties”, which have been getting
support of Muslims in the state traditionally, are ready to go alone in this
upcoming election, and all have one common agenda and that is of attracting
Muslims, who are almost 20 percent as voters in the state.
Samajwadi
Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress Party, which are considered
as secular parties, have decided to go alone in this election. Though, these
three political parties are not going to contest elections alone for the first
time, but situation is totally different this time as Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) has become a strong contender of power in the state. The saffron party,
which has been seen by many as a political enemy of minorities, had won 73 Lok
Sabha seats out of 80 in UP in 2014. So, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah led BJP is
tough challenge for these “secular parties”.
Filmmaker
Shoaib Hussain Choudhary, who comes from a well known political family of
western UP, feels if these secular political parties go alone in upcoming
election, they will have to face very tough situation.
Choudhary,
whose maternal grandfather Shakhawat Husain was a stalwart of socialist
political arena of UP and close aide of Ex PM Chandra Shekhar, says, “Frankly speaking,
this time SP and BSP have to face tough challenge from BJP which has secured
very strong base in UP since last Loksabha elections. It is also true that BJP
will not have a cake-walk like Lok Sabha elections because the ground reality
has been changed since that. But BJP will be a strong force in assembly
election.”
He
said, “As SP, BSP and Congress are ready to go alone in this election, Muslim
voters definitely will get divided. In western UP, Muslim-Jat combination can
work if SP and Ajit Singh’s RLD come together. Otherwise, these parties have to
face tough time.”
Historically,
the caste factor dominated in all UP elections since the beginning of Mandal
Politics, But at the same time the Kamandal Politics has also played
significant role as for as BJP is concerned. After the beginning of Mandal
politics in early 1990s, SP led by Mulayam Singh Yadav emerged as major force
and in that period Late Kanshi Ram gave a strong voice to Dalits and
Margianalised sections of Society through a political force called Bahujan
Samaj Party (BSP). The SP and BSP have ruled in the state most of the time
since 1993 when first coalition government of SP and BSP was made in the
leadership of Mulayam singh Yadav.
With
the beginning of Mandal politics, Muslims voters in UP, Which were primarily
the core voters of Congress since independent, switched over to SP and founded
Mulayam’s Strong MY equation. Major proportions of Muslim votes have been
always with the SP. But sometimes, according to situations and seats, Muslims
have also supported Congress, BSP and some of the small parties.
In
upcoming assembly elections, the BJP would like to let Muslim votes get
divided. The division of Muslim and Dalit votes, and polarization on religious
line are two important factors for any victory of the BJP in the state. The
cocktail of polarization and development helped the saffron party to get 73
seats out of 80 in last Lok Sabha elections. The BJP would like to create that
situation in upcoming elections too. There is clear indication of that. Many
political observers says the top leadership of BJP is talking about development
agenda and ‘ lack of development in the state’, But on the other hand, second
and third line of the BJP leadership of BJP are pursuing those issues which can
help in polarization.
Mumtaj
Alam Rizvi, National Beureau Chief of Urdu daily Inquilab, says, “As we all
know that after Mujaffarnagar riots BJP got benefits of polarisation of
religious line in UP. If this religious polarisation does not get momentum in
upcoming elections, division of Muslim votes could benefit BJP.”
Rizvi
Said, “For the formation of a government of secular parties, unity of Muslims
is very important. For bringing all major Muslim forces including Shahi Imam
Ahmed Bukhari and Azam Khan on a common platform, an attempt is going on for a
few months. Some positive results could be seen in near future.”
Apart
from SP, BSP and Congress, in UP there are some other Political parties like
Owaisi’s AIMIM, Dr. Ayub’s Peace Party and Rashtriya Ulema Council which claims
to be true sympathisers of Muslims. These parties somehow have succeeded in
making a base among Muslims.
AIMIM
had performed pretty well as a debutant in Maharashtra assembly elections in
2014 where Owaise’s party bagged two seats and capture a big portion of Muslim
votes. It gave a big jolt to ambitions of Congress and NCP which used to be one
and only options for Muslims in the state. Poltical pundits say if AIMIM fight
the UP elections in full capacity, it is going to hurt SP, BSP and Congress.
But, AIMIM Delhi unit president Mr. Irfanullah Khan has different prospective
on this.
Mr.
Khan says, “These so-called secular parties have use Muslims only as vote bank.
They only created fears among Muslims and did nothing for their development.
AIMIM has given a hope to the Muslims and other weaker sections of the society.
So, Muslims are not going to get fooled anymore.”
Owaisi
has announced that his party is going to fight elections on all seats in UP. His
supporters have given a slogan called “Jai Bheem, Jai Meem”. This slogan is
going to hurt Mayawati in big way because she is hoping to form the government
again with help of Dalit-Muslim combination. Mayawati knows her party will not
get significant amount of support of upper caste hindus like 2007 elections, in
which Brahmans voted BSP overwhelmingly, because of some factors, including
Dayashankar singh episode and caste and religious based polarisations.
So,
this UP election is going to be very crucial not only for the state but Muslims
also. This community will have very tough choices.
[ anwarjournalist@gmail.com]