Big question in 2017 Uttar Pradesh polls: Will Muslims be divided or not?

Anwarul Haq

In Uttar Pradesh (UP), Muslims have been huge force for secular parties which are ruling in the country’s most populous state for last two decades. But scenario seems to be different this time. Unlike Bihar where Nitish Kumar led coalition was an ultimate choice, Muslims in UP is going to face very tough situation electorally in early next year assembly elections.

The question is after all why this scenario of confusion for Muslims in UP is being created? There are some strong reasons for this situation. First and the most important reason is that main “secular parties”, which have been getting support of Muslims in the state traditionally, are ready to go alone in this upcoming election, and all have one common agenda and that is of attracting Muslims, who are almost 20 percent as voters in the state.

Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress Party, which are considered as secular parties, have decided to go alone in this election. Though, these three political parties are not going to contest elections alone for the first time, but situation is totally different this time as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has become a strong contender of power in the state. The saffron party, which has been seen by many as a political enemy of minorities, had won 73 Lok Sabha seats out of 80 in UP in 2014. So, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah led BJP is tough challenge for these “secular parties”.

Filmmaker Shoaib Hussain Choudhary, who comes from a well known political family of western UP, feels if these secular political parties go alone in upcoming election, they will have to face very tough situation.

Choudhary, whose maternal grandfather Shakhawat Husain was a stalwart of socialist political arena of UP and close aide of Ex PM Chandra Shekhar, says, “Frankly speaking, this time SP and BSP have to face tough challenge from BJP which has secured very strong base in UP since last Loksabha elections. It is also true that BJP will not have a cake-walk like Lok Sabha elections because the ground reality has been changed since that. But BJP will be a strong force in assembly election.”

He said, “As SP, BSP and Congress are ready to go alone in this election, Muslim voters definitely will get divided. In western UP, Muslim-Jat combination can work if SP and Ajit Singh’s RLD come together. Otherwise, these parties have to face tough time.”

Historically, the caste factor dominated in all UP elections since the beginning of Mandal Politics, But at the same time the Kamandal Politics has also played significant role as for as BJP is concerned. After the beginning of Mandal politics in early 1990s, SP led by Mulayam Singh Yadav emerged as major force and in that period Late Kanshi Ram gave a strong voice to Dalits and Margianalised sections of Society through a political force called Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The SP and BSP have ruled in the state most of the time since 1993 when first coalition government of SP and BSP was made in the leadership of Mulayam singh Yadav.

With the beginning of Mandal politics, Muslims voters in UP, Which were primarily the core voters of Congress since independent, switched over to SP and founded Mulayam’s Strong MY equation. Major proportions of Muslim votes have been always with the SP. But sometimes, according to situations and seats, Muslims have also supported Congress, BSP and some of the small parties.

In upcoming assembly elections, the BJP would like to let Muslim votes get divided. The division of Muslim and Dalit votes, and polarization on religious line are two important factors for any victory of the BJP in the state. The cocktail of polarization and development helped the saffron party to get 73 seats out of 80 in last Lok Sabha elections. The BJP would like to create that situation in upcoming elections too. There is clear indication of that. Many political observers says the top leadership of BJP is talking about development agenda and ‘ lack of development in the state’, But on the other hand, second and third line of the BJP leadership of BJP are pursuing those issues which can help in polarization.

Mumtaj Alam Rizvi, National Beureau Chief of Urdu daily Inquilab, says, “As we all know that after Mujaffarnagar riots BJP got benefits of polarisation of religious line in UP. If this religious polarisation does not get momentum in upcoming elections, division of Muslim votes could benefit BJP.”

Rizvi Said, “For the formation of a government of secular parties, unity of Muslims is very important. For bringing all major Muslim forces including Shahi Imam Ahmed Bukhari and Azam Khan on a common platform, an attempt is going on for a few months. Some positive results could be seen in near future.”

Apart from SP, BSP and Congress, in UP there are some other Political parties like Owaisi’s AIMIM, Dr. Ayub’s Peace Party and Rashtriya Ulema Council which claims to be true sympathisers of Muslims. These parties somehow have succeeded in making a base among Muslims.

AIMIM had performed pretty well as a debutant in Maharashtra assembly elections in 2014 where Owaise’s party bagged two seats and capture a big portion of Muslim votes. It gave a big jolt to ambitions of Congress and NCP which used to be one and only options for Muslims in the state. Poltical pundits say if AIMIM fight the UP elections in full capacity, it is going to hurt SP, BSP and Congress. But, AIMIM Delhi unit president Mr. Irfanullah Khan has different prospective on this.

Mr. Khan says, “These so-called secular parties have use Muslims only as vote bank. They only created fears among Muslims and did nothing for their development. AIMIM has given a hope to the Muslims and other weaker sections of the society. So, Muslims are not going to get fooled anymore.”

Owaisi has announced that his party is going to fight elections on all seats in UP. His supporters have given a slogan called “Jai Bheem, Jai Meem”. This slogan is going to hurt Mayawati in big way because she is hoping to form the government again with help of Dalit-Muslim combination. Mayawati knows her party will not get significant amount of support of upper caste hindus like 2007 elections, in which Brahmans voted BSP overwhelmingly, because of some factors, including Dayashankar singh episode and caste and religious based polarisations.

So, this UP election is going to be very crucial not only for the state but Muslims also. This community will have very tough choices.

[ anwarjournalist@gmail.com]